Bookings Desk
Premier LeagueThis Gameweek
Who's most likely to be booked — fixture by fixture, with the referee folded in.
★ My watchlist
Fixtures · hottest first
Fixtures are ordered hottest to coolest by booking heat. Each fixture's booking candidates are its highest-risk available players, ranked by a fixture-aware booking probability: the season model chance scaled by the assigned referee's card rate (the ×factor) and a small derby bump. Bands: High 50%+, Watch 30–50%. The dot is sample confidence (minutes played). Assign referees on each card once appointments are published. An estimate for research, not a price — see the Guide.
Season table
Every squad player ranked by season-long booking risk — yellows per 90 weighted double, plus fouls per 90. For this weekend's picks, see This Gameweek.
| Watchlist | Club |
|---|
Risk = yellow rate per 90 weighted double plus fouls per 90, from 2025-26 form. P(card) is the model-implied chance of a booking in a match with its fair decimal odds — click it to compare a bookmaker price (an estimate, see the Guide). The EFL chip marks the three promoted clubs, whose form is from the Championship. Low sample is under 450 minutes.
Clubs
The 20 clubs by cards received per game, tiered for targeting, with each club's top booking risk.
| Club | Cards against /game | Fouls /game | Tier | Top booking risk |
|---|
Club rates are 2025-26 Premier League, cards received per game and fouls committed per game; the H · A line under each rate is the home/away split (football-data.co.uk match data), which the Fixtures tab's booking heat uses. Tier off cards against: target 2.0 and above, mid 1.5 to 1.9, fade below 1.5. Flame marks combustible, 2.0 plus cards and 12.0 plus fouls. The three promoted clubs played 2025-26 in the Championship, where the data mixes cup games, so their team rate is not comparable and is shown as EFL basis. Click a club to see its players.
Referees
2025-26 officials by yellows per game — the busiest whistles carry the most booking value.
2025-26 Premier League officials by yellows per game. The busiest officials carry the most booking value. Figures are season averages from public data, appointments for 2026-27 fixtures fill in once the season starts.
| Referee | Matches | Yellows /game | Reds /game | Pens /game | Career to '18 |
|---|
Fixtures
The 2026-27 schedule by gameweek, with booking heat and each match's top risks.
Booking heat is venue-aware: the home side's home card rate plus the away side's away card rate, from 2025-26 form (promoted clubs use the league median until they build Premier League data). Hot is 4.2 plus, warm 3.5 plus. The flame marks a combustible side; recognised derbies get a ×1.15 heat boost and a derby chip. Top risks are each fixture's highest-risk available players. Referee appointments are not published in the FPL feed — once the PGMOL announcement is out, assign the official with each fixture's Ref control (saved in this browser) and the booking heat scales to his card rate, clamped. Schedule via the official FPL API.
My Picks
Log picks with odds and stake, settle results, and track hit-rate, P/L and ROI.
Log a pick
| Fixture | Selection | Market | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L | Remove |
|---|
Set a result to settle a pick. Hit-rate counts settled picks only, void excluded. Picks save to this browser under pl_desk_v1 — sign in (top right) to sync them across devices.
✨ AI review of your picks
Optional. Your settled picks go to this site's own /api/insights function, which holds the AI key server-side, and you get back a short read on which markets are working and what to change. Needs at least 3 settled picks and a signed-in account (the review is rate-limited per user per day). Not available if the deploy hasn't switched it on.
Guide
The method, the risk formula, the tiers and the known limits.
How to use the desk
A stats-based filter for Premier League player-bookings markets. It ranks players by how often they get carded and give away fouls, so your per-fixture research starts in the right place. It does not pick players or price markets.
This Gameweek — the default view
The desk opens on This Gameweek: a card per fixture, each led by its referee and listing the highest-risk available players from both sides, banded by a fixture-aware booking probability. That number is the season model chance of a card (below) scaled by two match factors: the assigned referee's card rate — shown inline as the ×factor on each row and at the top of the card — and a small boost for recognised derbies. Bands are High (50%+) and Watch (30–50%); lower-risk names fold away behind a toggle. The coloured dot on each row is sample confidence from minutes played (green high, amber medium, grey low). Your starred players surface in a My watchlist card at the top, sorted by their next fixture's probability. Referee appointments aren't in the live feed, so assign the official on each card once PGMOL publishes them — every player's number then scales to his whistle. Fixtures are ordered hottest to coolest by booking heat. Every match card has a ⬇ Share match button that exports it as an image, and ⬇ Share gameweek exports the whole round's fixtures ranked by heat — both handy for FPL and tipster content. It's an estimate layered on season form, not a market price.
Player booking risk
risk = yellow cards per 90 × 2 + fouls committed per 90
Yellow rate is weighted double because the bet pays on cards, not fouls. Fouls per 90 carries the volume signal, the players who keep giving the referee a decision. Both are 2025-26 rates. Players under 450 minutes are flagged low sample.
Implied probability and value
The desk turns each risk score into a model-implied chance of the player being carded in a match, using a logistic curve calibrated on the baked season data: the league base booking rate is total yellows per player-match (about —% here), and the curve is anchored so the minutes-weighted league-average player lands exactly on that base rate. The P(card) column shows the probability and its fair decimal odds (1 ÷ probability); click it to paste a bookmaker's price and see the edge, (odds × probability − 1). Positive edge means the price pays more than the model thinks the chance is worth.
Be honest with it: this is a season-average estimate from form data, not a market price. It knows nothing about a specific matchup beyond the risk score, referees and derbies adjust fixture heat but not this per-player number, and bookmaker odds carry margin. Use the edge as a screen for further research, never as a guarantee.
Club discipline
Clubs are tiered on cards received per game, target 2.0 and above, mid 1.5 to 1.9, fade below 1.5. The flame marks a combustible side, 2.0 plus cards and 12.0 plus fouls.
Live data
The desk pulls the official FPL feed through its own proxy: the 2026-27 schedule for the Fixtures tab, each player's live yellow and red card count, and availability flags (injured, suspended, doubtful). Once a player has 450 minutes of 2026-27 football, his yellow rate in the risk score switches from last season's form to this season's live rate — rows carry a green dot when live rates are in use. If the feed is unreachable the desk falls back to the baked 2025-26 form and says so in the top bar.
Matchup context
Derby fixtures — the recognised rivalries among the 20 clubs, North London to Tyne–Wear, plus the promoted clubs' regional rivalries — get a booking-heat boost and a 🔥 derby chip on the Fixtures tab, since rivalry games run hotter with the referee. Once at least two finished gameweeks have been recorded, the players table adds a small ▲ card-form trend beside the yellow count: cards picked up over the recent recorded window (up to the last five gameweeks). Booking heat is also venue-aware: each club's cards-against is split into home and away rates (football-data.co.uk match data — away sides consistently pick up more cards), so the same two clubs read differently at each ground. Opponent fouls-drawn would sharpen matchup calls further, but needs richer source data than the current pipeline carries.
Suspension watch
Premier League bans trigger at 5 yellows (up to gameweek 19), 10 (up to gameweek 32) and 15 (all season). The strip above the players table flags anyone one booking from a ban — a player with a card to burn is a lean, one protecting a threshold often isn't — and lists players currently suspended or injured so you don't back an absentee.
Watchlist
Tap the ☆ star on any player row to pin him. Your starred players get a My watchlist card at the top of This Gameweek — each with his next fixture, the assigned referee and his fixture-aware booking probability, sorted so the likeliest bookings sit first; tap any to open the profile. On the Season table, tick ★ Watchlist in the filter bar to see only your starred players — low-sample included, since you starred them on purpose. The list saves to this browser.
AI review of your picks
Optional, in the Tracker tab. Once you have three or more settled picks, the review sends them to the desk's own server function and returns a short read on which markets are paying, whether your odds range shows a pattern, and what to change. The AI key lives on the server, never in your browser. You need to be signed in — the review is tied to your account and capped per day so the shared budget can't be drained. If the deploy hasn't enabled it, the desk simply says so — nothing else depends on it.
Where the numbers come from
Player and club form is 2025-26 from ScoutingStats, refreshed in season with live card counts from the official FPL API. Seventeen clubs are on Premier League data. The three promoted clubs, Coventry, Ipswich and Hull, carry their 2025-26 Championship form, flagged EFL, since that is their only recent record. Referee figures are 2025-26 season averages from public data, with each official's long-run record (and the league's 26-season card trend) from the MIT-licensed epldata package — unofficial, cautions only, frozen at May 2018, so it contextualises rather than prices.
Accounts and sync
Sign-in is optional. Signed out, picks save to this browser only. Sign in (top right) and your tracker picks sync to the cloud and follow you across devices — on first sign-in, local and cloud picks are merged so nothing is lost. The same account works on Gameweek Edge.
Known limits
- Until the 2026-27 season starts, risk scores are last season's form as the pre-season basis. Live card rates take over per player at 450 minutes.
- Fouls are not in the FPL feed, so the fouls half of the risk score stays on 2025-26 form all season.
- Promoted clubs (Coventry, Hull, Ipswich) are on Championship form, a different and rougher division, so treat their numbers as indicative. They're flagged EFL throughout and their team rate is not shown, because the Championship data mixes cup minutes.
- The promoted clubs carry only a handful of players who cleared the minutes floor, so their squads look sparse here until 2026-27 Premier League form accrues. They're kept separate rather than padded.
- Referee appointments are not in the FPL feed. Assign the official on each fixture card once appointments are published (usually a few days out) — the assignment saves to this browser and folds the referee's card rate into that fixture's booking heat, and watchlisted players get a strict-ref flag above the players table.
Built for research, not a betting guarantee. Stake responsibly.